This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we should have a large edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they’ve not heard and will just be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these big prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s a tough card this Sunday and I think we’ll see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a total 100+ points in a fight, I like to stack it into my cash games and lock in those points. I believe this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we can see numerous knockdowns as well that would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points together with both of these guys. Let us let everybody else make the errors and we could lock in a 100+ points and a win, then we only have to find another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a win. He’s got quite a slick entry game and if this fight goes to the ground I presume he will pick up progress points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even if he is winning the feet, he shoots in for takedowns each struggle. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go for it himself and it will cost him. I believe we could see a 1st round entry here and that should easily get that the 10x+ we’re looking for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he will easily pay off this price . He has 100-point upside and using a $7.5k salary that will certainly put him on the winning lineup when he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I would not be surprised if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the last couple of years but I think that he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, however I think you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being right and I can hit the right combo. It’s hard to pick one favourite fade this week but I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I think he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. Thus, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and I really don’t see him getting a submission. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
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